The Sudanese Armed Forces achieved military gains in West Kordofan this week with the capture of al-Khuwai, a major town in the resource-rich state. The offensive, conducted alongside allied Darfur forces, has succeeded in breaking an RSF siege on al-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, and has opened new supply routes that enable SAF advances southwestward toward Babnusa and North Darfur. The operation has also facilitated access to an important road connecting al-Nuhud, home to significant gold mining operations, with al-Khuwai.
The RSF and its alleged allies continue to hold al-Nuhud and portions of South Kordofan, but recent military setbacks in southern and western Sudan may constrain the paramilitary’s capacity to mobilize tribal support in the region. Analysts suggest the RSF’s shift from offensive to defensive posturing could fundamentally alter its military structure, which has historically depended on rapid tribal mobilization. As the Kordofan region lacks strong social foundations for RSF support compared to Darfur, the paramilitary may consolidate forces in Darfur, potentially making that region the primary conflict zone. Defections among tribal groups to the SAF have accelerated as the armed forces gain territorial control.
The broader conflict between the SAF under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the RSF emerged following a power struggle that intensified in April 2023. The fighting has created one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with approximately 150,000 deaths and more than 14 million of Sudan’s 53 million population displaced. The RSF maintains control over all five states in Darfur, including el-Fasher, captured in October 2025 following a prolonged siege.
The UN has designated Kordofan as the epicenter of Sudan’s conflict, and the fighting continues to drive mass displacement, with about 4.5 million civilians fleeing to neighboring countries. Both sides have employed drone attacks against civilian targets and infrastructure, though analysts characterize the RSF’s drone strategy as part of a broader campaign of intimidation and economic disruption. Military experts indicate that SAF’s growing air superiority and tactical innovations have significantly reduced the RSF’s prospects for recovering lost territory in Kordofan.
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