Moderna’s stock price declined sharply on Thursday following the disclosure of partial data regarding its personalized cancer vaccine developed in partnership with Merck, though complete results released later that day demonstrated meaningful clinical benefits that exceeded analyst expectations.
The vaccine, called intismeran autogene, when combined with Merck’s immunotherapy Keytruda, reduced the risk of melanoma recurrence or death by 42% compared to Keytruda alone. Additional analysis showed the combined treatment reduced the risk of cancer spreading or death by 38% versus immunotherapy treatment by itself. According to the companies, 82% of patients receiving the vaccine and Keytruda remained free from melanoma recurrence two years after treatment, compared to 70% of those receiving Keytruda alone. The six-month vaccine regimen showed even larger benefits in a separate analysis, demonstrating a 58% reduction in recurrence or death risk. Side effects associated with the combination therapy were notably mild, primarily involving injection-site pain.
Analysts attributed the stock decline to investor expectations that had been elevated ahead of the data release rather than weakness in the treatment’s effectiveness. Multiple research firms characterized the trial results as strong and clinically meaningful. The detailed phase 3 trial findings were scheduled for presentation at the European Society for Medical Oncology conference. Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel indicated the company is completing regulatory filings with the aim of obtaining full approval next year, while noting the achievement represented a significant moment for the field and patients.
The personalized approach trains each patient’s immune system to recognize mutations specific to their individual tumor before combining that response with Keytruda. Merck and Moderna are investigating the vaccine across additional cancer types, including non-small cell lung cancer, bladder cancer, and renal cell carcinoma, though company officials acknowledged further work is needed to demonstrate effectiveness across different tumor types. The manufacturing process currently requires approximately six weeks per personalized dose, though Merck leadership expressed confidence in shortening that timeline.
Moderna shares had climbed more than 530% year-to-date through Thursday afternoon, while Merck shares fell approximately 1% and have gained nearly 41% during the year. The vaccine represents a potentially significant commercial addition to Moderna’s portfolio alongside its existing vaccines for Covid-19, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus.
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