The ongoing El Niño event in the tropical Pacific is tracking to reach record intensity by the end of this year, with analysis from Carbon Brief suggesting it will push global average temperatures to historically high levels in 2027. Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather described the current event as “simply staggering,” noting that the phenomenon is developing with unusual speed and strength compared to historical records.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that releases ocean heat into the atmosphere and temporarily elevates global temperatures. The strength of El Niño events is measured using the Niño3.4 anomaly, which indicates how much warmer sea surface temperatures are than their historical average in a central Pacific region. Analysis of more than 600 forecasts from 14 different climate models indicates the current El Niño is projected to peak with an anomaly of around 4 degrees Celsius—more than a degree above the previous record set during the 2015-16 event.
The current event has already established multiple records since its onset. On September 18, the daily anomaly in the Niño3.4 region reached 3.11 degrees Celsius, surpassing the previous satellite-era record from 2015. September also recorded the highest monthly temperature anomaly in that region since records began in the mid-1800s. Climate models analyzing the trajectory suggest that 10 of 14 models expect temperatures to peak in December, with the remaining models anticipating a November peak.
Carbon Brief’s projections indicate that the 2027 average global temperature will reach approximately 1.74 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with a 96 percent probability that the year will be the warmest on record. Global temperatures typically lag warming in the tropical Pacific by approximately three months, meaning the peak effects of this El Niño will be felt primarily during 2027. While long-term global warming is driven by human greenhouse gas emissions, year-to-year temperature fluctuations are significantly influenced by El Niño conditions.
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