A significant El Niño event currently underway since June is on track to reach peak intensity by the end of 2026, according to analysis from Carbon Brief examining forecasts from multiple climate models and temperature datasets. The phenomenon is characterized as exceptionally strong, with researchers noting that current warming patterns in the tropical Pacific are substantially exceeding historical records.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that temporarily elevates global temperatures by releasing oceanic heat into the atmosphere. The strength of the current event is measured through the Niño3.4 anomaly metric, which tracks sea surface temperature variations in a central Pacific region. Analysis of over 600 forecasts from 14 climate models projects the event will peak with an anomaly around 4 degrees Celsius, surpassing the previous record of approximately 2.8 degrees Celsius from 2015-2016.
The event has already established multiple records since its onset. In mid-September, daily measurements in the Niño3.4 region reached 3.11 degrees Celsius above average, breaking the satellite-era record. September itself registered the highest monthly anomaly in this region since sea surface temperature records began in the mid-1800s at 2.84 degrees Celsius. Researchers characterize the development as occurring at an unprecedented pace relative to historical El Niño events.
The full effects on global temperatures are expected to manifest primarily during the following year, as global temperature responses typically lag tropical Pacific warming by approximately three months. Carbon Brief’s analysis projects that average global temperatures in 2027 will reach around 1.74 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with a 96 percent probability of setting a new temperature record. The current El Niño event has already influenced regional weather patterns globally, contributing to significant fire activity in Indonesia and intense tropical cyclones in the western Pacific.
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