Energy system operators in Great Britain have released winter forecasts indicating the country will maintain adequate gas and electricity supplies during the coldest months, though at some of the highest costs across Europe. The projections come as European gas market benchmarks reached their highest levels since December 2022, driven by geopolitical supply disruptions and elevated global demand.
National Gas, which operates the country’s gas networks, finalized an agreement with a Belgian pipeline operator to maintain gas imports by preventing a planned capacity reduction. Energy regulator Ofgem approved the arrangement, which will add approximately 10 pence monthly to average gas bills. Without the intervention, supply disruptions could have occurred during severe winter conditions if critical infrastructure failed. Great Britain is also expected to increase imports of seaborne liquified natural gas by roughly 5 percent compared to the previous winter, though market prices remain approximately three times higher than before recent Middle East supply disruptions.
The country faces particular vulnerability due to limited domestic gas storage capacity, having relied on North Sea production for decades. Current North Sea output is forecast to decline 6 percent from the previous winter, though a recently approved new gasfield is expected to provide modest supply increases starting next month. European gas storage levels entering winter are at their lowest in 13 years, constrained by reduced exports from Qatar and elevated summer consumption for cooling during record heatwaves.
Electricity imports are also projected to increase this winter at higher costs, as reduced river levels across Europe have impacted French nuclear output and Norwegian hydroelectric reserves. Great Britain spent a record £4 billion on power imports over the year ending in August, with roughly half sourced from France. Gas power plants may see increased demand during extreme supply scenarios despite overall declining winter usage from growing renewable energy capacity.
System operators noted that while supply diversity provides resilience, combined demand and supply trends have created tighter margins during periods of peak demand and operational stress.
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