Global temperature data through the first nine months of 2026 indicates the year will almost certainly finish as either the warmest or second-warmest on record. Carbon Brief’s analysis assigns a 67% probability that 2026 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year, though individual datasets show varying assessments ranging from 97% likelihood in Berkeley Earth’s estimates to below 20% in the European Copernicus reanalysis product. The difference may become clear when temperature groups issue their final assessments in January.
The first six months of 2026 ran cooler than the comparable period in 2024 as weak La Niña conditions transitioned to a developing El Niño. This pattern reversed sharply beginning in July. August set a new monthly temperature record, becoming the warmest August across all six major temperature datasets by margins of 0.07 to 0.13 degrees Celsius. September, while cooling slightly, remained the second-warmest on record for that month. The July-September period tied with the same timeframe in 2023 as the warmest such quarter on record.
A rapidly intensifying El Niño is the primary driver of elevated temperatures. In September, sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific’s Niño3.4 region broke a record previously established in November 2015, becoming the strongest event measured since satellite monitoring began in 1981. Climate model forecasts examined by Carbon Brief project the El Niño will peak around 4 degrees Celsius in December, exceeding the prior record by more than one degree and potentially representing the strongest such event in a millennium based on historical analysis of tree rings and coral records.
Regional temperature anomalies during July-September were pronounced across multiple areas. Western Europe and the Mediterranean experienced temperatures approximately 3 degrees Celsius above average, while the tropical Pacific showed exceptional warmth exceeding 4 degrees above normal near Ecuador and Peru. Northwestern Russia, the Canadian Arctic, eastern Africa, and parts of west Antarctica also recorded significantly elevated temperatures. Looking ahead, carbon Brief projects 2027 will reach 1.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels with a 96% probability of becoming the warmest year on record as El Niño effects fully manifest.
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