Global temperature data indicates that 2026 will finish as either the warmest or second-warmest year in recorded history, based on analysis conducted as three-quarters of the year have elapsed. Carbon Brief’s examination of six global temperature datasets assigns a 67% probability that this year will surpass 2024’s previous record. However, different temperature measurement groups show varying confidence levels, with estimates ranging from as high as 97% to less than 20% depending on the dataset used. Scientists expect official determinations of whether 2026 achieved record status will come in January, and disagreement among major organizations is possible.
The year’s exceptional warmth stems from two primary drivers: the natural climate phenomenon El Niño and ongoing human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. El Niño, the warm phase of a cyclical tropical Pacific climate pattern, transfers ocean heat into the atmosphere and temporarily elevates global temperatures. August was confirmed as the warmest August on record across all six datasets examined, while September ranked as the second-warmest on that measure. The first nine months of 2026 averaged approximately 1.45 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, falling slightly below 2024’s comparable period. Temperatures began relatively modestly from January through June before accelerating significantly in the latter half of the year.
El Niño has intensified dramatically, with the tropical Pacific’s key measurement region reaching unprecedented strength since satellite monitoring began in 1981. As of mid-October, this event exceeded the previous record set in November 2015 by approximately 0.4 degrees. Climate models analyzed by Carbon Brief project the phenomenon will peak around December at approximately 4 degrees above normal—more than 1 degree higher than any previously recorded El Niño event. Evidence from tree rings and coral sediments suggests this could represent the strongest El Niño in at least a thousand years.
Looking ahead, forecasters anticipate that 2027 will experience the maximum temperature effects from the peak El Niño conditions, with global temperatures projected to reach 1.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Climate models assign a 96% probability that 2027 will set a new annual temperature record. Regional temperature extremes have been documented across Europe, Russia, Canada, North America, Africa, and Antarctica during the past three months, with some areas experiencing temperatures exceeding 4 degrees above historical averages.
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