The Social Security trust fund faces potential depletion in the fourth quarter of 2032, which could trigger automatic benefit reductions of 22% absent congressional action, according to program trustees. The outcome of this November’s Senate elections may significantly influence whether lawmakers pursue reforms or postpone difficult decisions regarding the program’s future.
According to polling by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, 81% of voters in competitive Senate states indicate greater support for candidates presenting detailed Social Security reform plans compared to those pledging not to modify the program. Despite this voter preference for substantive policy positions, many Senate candidates have provided limited specifics about their Social Security proposals. Of the 35 Senate seats up for election this November, CNBC identified nine races where candidates have articulated their stances on the program.
The identified races span multiple states with varying reform approaches. In Alaska, Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan has previously expressed openness to adjusting the retirement age or implementing means-testing, though his recent messaging emphasizes protecting current beneficiaries through bipartisan solutions. His Democratic challenger, former Representative Mary Peltola, proposes eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits. In Iowa’s open seat race, Democratic candidate Josh Turek advocates removing the payroll tax earnings cap, while Republican Representative Ashley Hinson opposes benefit cuts and previously supported related legislation, though she faced scrutiny over staffing reductions at a local Social Security field office.
In Maine, incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins expressed support during debate for adjusting the payroll tax cap and establishing an expert commission to address funding gaps. Her Democratic opponent, Troy Jackson, advocates raising the earnings cap and increasing benefits for retirees while opposing privatization and retirement age increases. These varying positions reflect broader national debate over whether to address Social Security’s long-term challenges through revenue increases, benefit modifications, or alternative approaches, with newly elected senators potentially shaping the program’s trajectory throughout their six-year terms.
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