Research from a four-year international study examining climate impacts on marine life in UK waters and the wider north-east Atlantic has found that warming seas could significantly disrupt ocean ecosystems through uneven changes in marine biodiversity. The study, led by the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science and published in Science Advances, involved researchers from institutions across the UK, Norway, the Netherlands, and Denmark.
The waters around the British Isles, particularly the southern North Sea, have experienced some of the fastest warming globally over the past 50 years and have been identified as marine climate hotspots. Using long-term datasets and machine-learning techniques, researchers projected biodiversity changes under a scenario of 3C warming by 2100. Their findings challenged previous assumptions that marine diversity in middle latitude regions like the UK would increase uniformly as oceans warm.
The projections indicate that by mid-century, fish and seabed invertebrate diversity could increase by approximately 12%, while key plankton groups at the base of the food chain—phytoplankton and zooplankton—are expected to decline by about 3% and 7% respectively. This uneven change creates a problematic imbalance where predator diversity rises while prey diversity falls, potentially disrupting marine food webs and weakening ecosystem resilience. Elena Couce, a marine ecologist and co-lead author, noted that the results demonstrate warming does not affect all species uniformly across ecosystems.
The study identified potential climate winners such as anchovies, seabass, and sardines that may thrive in warming waters, while species like Atlantic cod, haddock, and coley face challenges. Researchers emphasized that policymakers must account for climate-driven biodiversity changes when developing fishery management and marine protection strategies. The findings have already been submitted to the government’s review of marine protected areas to inform policy decisions.
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