As the Apec summit approaches in China, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other regional leaders have voiced apprehension regarding a possible trilateral meeting between Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin. Their concerns center on parallels to the historical Yalta Conference, where major powers negotiated territorial and geopolitical arrangements without input from smaller nations. The diplomatic principle underlying these worries holds that nations absent from such high-level discussions risk having their interests compromised in complex power negotiations.
Russia has actively promoted the concept of a modern Yalta arrangement, with officials suggesting it could establish a comprehensive security framework based on spheres of influence. Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky stated that such a system could ensure European peace for decades or centuries. However, the original 1945 Yalta Conference has become synonymous with betrayal in Western memory, particularly in the United States, where it is recalled as a moment when smaller nations’ interests were sacrificed by wartime powers. Former President George Bush characterized it as consigning millions to communist captivity and demonstrated how freely trading small nations’ autonomy for stability ultimately produced division and instability.
China’s position in any such summit remains ambiguous. While reluctant to embrace traditional superpower status, Chinese officials and analysts present varied perspectives on involvement. Some emphasize non-interference, characterizing both the Russia-Ukraine and Iran conflicts as strategic errors by their respective leaders that China must manage. Others argue that China could play a stabilizing role by supporting multilateralism and potentially facilitating agreements, particularly regarding Middle Eastern conflicts and maintaining open waterways critical to Chinese economic interests.
The stakes for excluded parties are substantial. Ukraine, Eastern European nations, Baltic states, Taiwan, and Iran all face uncertainty about whether their international sponsors might negotiate settlements unfavorable to their interests. Trump has previously expressed support for sphere-of-influence geopolitics, though his administration’s foreign policy execution has been inconsistent. The format and outcomes of any trilateral meeting remain uncertain, as China has reportedly pushed certain agenda items off the table and may restrict discussions to formal diplomatic exchanges.
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