U.S.-Iran war exposes big market concentration risk. It isn’t in S&P 500 stocks

by | Mar 6, 2026 | Financial

Investors have poured money into emerging markets in recent years as the search for big stock gains has migrated overseas and as they look for diversification beyond the concentrated S&P 500. But the U.S.-Iran military conflict has reframed the concentration question, highlighting the level of risk in emerging markets when it comes to gains being dependent on a select number of stocks, many tied to the AI boom. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has had strong performance over the past few years and into 2026, up 29% in 2025 and still holding onto a small gain this year. However, its holdings remain largely tilted toward Asia, with large exposure to China, South Korea, India, and Taiwan, together representing over three-quarters of the index weight, and many of the top stocks tied to tech, including Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung. “If you look at the index within emerging markets, it’s still roughly 80% Asia,” Malcolm Dorson, senior emerging markets portfolio manager and senior v.p. head of the active investment team at ETF company Global X said on CNBC’s “ETF Edge” earlier this week. “That gives you a lot of concentration risk,” he said.Overall, the EM index has a 30%-plus tech sector weighting.South Korean stocks have experienced extreme volatility this week. The market posted its worst single-day move ever on Wednesday as the escalating war in the Middle East resulted in concerns about energy supplies to Asia, where top stocks in the memory sector fueling the AI boom rely on energy-intensive processes. After its worst day ever, the South Korean index rebounded on Thursday for its best day since 2008. The iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) is still down close to 13% this week. Some of the enormous volatility in South Korean stocks is tied to how well they have performed recently, and how many retail investors have seen big gains from holding them. SK Hynix, a top holding in the broad emerging market indexes, gained 274% last year, while Samsung gained 125%. [embedded content]Performance of the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF over the past one-year period.A huge spike in oil prices since the outbreak of the military conflict has rattled global markets. On Friday, Brent crude futures topped $90 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were closing in on that range, up more than 30% this week, while Brent has advanced nearly 26%.The energy squeeze in Asian nations can be seen in China’s reported decision this week to tell domestic oil refining companies to stop any exports of fuel, and more Asian nations may follow with similar moves to retain …

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