Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following the Federal Open Markets Committee meeting at the Federal Reserve on March 18, 2026 in Washington, DC. Anna Moneymaker | Getty ImagesFederal Reserve officials at their March meeting still expected to lower interest rates this year, even with a high level of uncertainty from the Iran war and tariffs, according to minutes released Wednesday.Most of the participants said the war could result in the need for easier monetary policy if rising gas prices hit the labor market and consumer wallets.Policymakers said they would need to remain “nimble” as they weighed the impact the war had on inflation, which continued to hold above the Fed’s target, and hiring, which has been mostly flat over the past year.”Many participants judged that, in time, it would likely become appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate if inflation were to decline in line with their expectations,” the minutes said.The consensus anticipated one cut this year, unchanged from the last update in December.The summary then noted caution over “a further softening in labor market conditions, which could warrant additional rate cuts, as substantially higher oil prices could reduce households’ purchasing power, tighten financial conditions, and reduce growth abroad.”Ultimately, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to keep the benchmark overnight borrowing rate targeted in a range between 3.5%-3.75%. Possible hike?The consensus was to keep rates steady as they observed conditions unfold, with officials also expressing concern that the Middle East hostilities could result in sustained infl …
