Could the US-Iran war become a protracted ‘frozen’ conflict?

by | Apr 30, 2026 | World

Two months since the US and Israel launched a joint surprise attack on Iran, negotiations appear deadlocked, as competing blockades of the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt global energy supplies, and the future of Iran’s nuclear programme remains unresolved.In a sign of the continuing standoff, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly on Tuesday said the US was still engaging with Iran on negotiations but would “not be rushed into making a bad deal”, a day after US President Donald Trump and his top security advisers discussed a new Iranian proposal ‌on resolving the war.Recommended Stories list of 3 itemsend of listAll military options remain on the table, despite a ceasefire in force since April 8 having paused the conflict. Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Tuesday cautioned against the possibility of a “frozen conflict”, where the critical waterway is used as a pressure card amid the possibility of violent flare-ups.The US president has envisioned the possibility of suspending a military campaign against Tehran while reserving the option of carrying out targeted strikes as needed.In the absence of a permanent deal that allows both sides to claim victory, analysts say a low-intensity conflict interspersed with periodic strikes offers a convenient way out – albeit one that prolongs regional instability and global economic disruption.The cost of a ‘frozen’ warThe war between the US and Iran can already be described as “frozen”, but this no-war-no-deal scenario comes at too high a cost for both parties, Mehran Kamrava, an expert on Iran at Georgetown University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera. Adve …

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