Kevin Warsh, incoming chairman of the US Federal Reserve, during a swearing-in ceremony in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, May 22, 2026. Yuri Gripas | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesDivided Federal Reserve officials indicated at their last meeting that they will address persistent inflation this year with one interest rate hike. History, though, suggests that policymakers will have a hard time stopping there.In fact, there have been few instances over the past 35 years or so when the Fed has only made one rate move, be it up or down. Rather, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee tends to move in rate cycles, where it adjusts policy multiple times over a period to meet whatever goal it seeks to accomplish.”A lot of people are talking about one rate increase. The committee does not generally do that. I mean, what’s the point of that?” former St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard told CNBC on Monday. “So, usually it means a tightening cycle, and I think markets are trying to sniff that out right now.”Markets will get more clues Wednesday about the Fed’s policy direction when the committee releases minutes from its June 16-17 meeting. The summary will provide a glimpse behind the curtain of new Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first meeting, which he characterized last month as “a good family fight” on the direction of rates. A history of cyclesThe last meeting featured an update on participants’ views on rates and key economic metrics and a dramatically shortened statement that flatly stated, “The Committee will deliver price stability.”In the “dot plot” grid of individual participants’ rate expectations, the committee leaned to a hike before the end …
