SpaceX completed what is considered the largest initial public offering in history when shares became available for public trading on June 12. The company priced shares at $135, but they immediately climbed to $150 on the first day and subsequently reached an intraday high of $225 the following week, briefly surpassing Amazon and Microsoft in total market value.
Investor enthusiasm initially centered on SpaceX’s association with artificial intelligence rather than its core rocket manufacturing and satellite business. The company had acquired Musk’s AI startup xAI and began leasing data center capacity, which drove significant market interest. However, as the reality of SpaceX’s current revenue streams came into focus—primarily from Starlink satellite operations—share prices began declining. By the end of its first trading month, shares had fallen to approximately $145, representing an 18% decrease from the opening day high and 35% below the peak price reached.
Analysts noted that early retail investors who purchased during the first few days of trading faced potential losses, with some comparing the price movement to “meme stock” dynamics seen with GameStop and Wendy’s. Research firm CFRA’s analyst suggested shares could decline further to around $115 based on current business fundamentals. However, investors who participated in the initial pricing or held pre-IPO equity positions generally remained in profitable positions.
Musk has publicly expressed confidence in SpaceX’s business prospects, projecting $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030—substantially higher than the company’s $18 billion in last year’s revenue. The company demonstrated strategic sophistication by acquiring AI startup Cursor in an all-stock deal timed when share prices peaked, effectively obtaining the company at minimal cost.
Market watchers anticipate significant developments following the company’s first public earnings report, expected in early August. This coincides with the expiration of the employee share lockup period, which could introduce additional shares to the market and potentially drive further price volatility. Morgan Stanley, a lead IPO banker, maintains an optimistic outlook with a $300 price target, though SpaceX currently operates at a loss.