The initial round of midterm primaries took place this week, with significant contests across Texas and North Carolina drawing substantial attention and spending.
The marquee race was Texas’ Republican Senate primary, where incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton failed to secure the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff scheduled for May. With 2.1 million votes counted as of Wednesday morning, Cornyn held a lead of approximately 26,000 votes. The contest has become the most expensive Senate primary in history. Cornyn led in the state’s largest metropolitan counties, including Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Austin, and Houston, though Paxton remained competitive in some urban areas. Paxton demonstrated strength in fast-growing suburban counties surrounding major cities and in counties where former President Donald Trump performed strongly in 2024. Meanwhile, Cornyn’s advantages were most pronounced in counties less favorable to Trump, despite Trump’s substantial margins across most of Texas.
On the Democratic side, the Senate primary was affected by voting issues in Harris County, the state’s second-largest county, creating confusion around ballot eligibility. State Rep. James Talarico won his primary outright, building significant margins in his Austin base and in smaller, rural central Texas counties. Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s support was concentrated in urban centers around Houston and Dallas, though her margins were more modest than Talarico’s in other regions. Talarico performed well in the southern and western regions with substantial Hispanic populations, securing nearly 70% in Hidalgo County and over 60% in El Paso County.
House races also saw heightened spending due to new congressional maps in Texas and North Carolina. Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw became the first House incumbent of the election cycle to lose reelection, despite his campaign spending over $2.3 million on advertising. Other incumbents face runoff elections or remain in competitive positions, while several primaries advancing to November show elevated spending levels compared to previous cycles.
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