A new prediction tool called the Absence Forecast has been created by researchers at the American Enterprise Institute to help school districts identify students at risk of chronic absenteeism before the school year begins. The tool allows districts to input historical attendance records by month, current-year absences, grade level, and eligibility for free and reduced-price lunches, then generates a prediction score between 0-100% indicating the likelihood a student will become chronically absent.
Chronic absenteeism is defined as missing at least 10% of school days and has been a significant concern for schools in recent years. National data shows chronic absenteeism peaked at approximately 28% during the 2021-22 school year. Among 41 states reporting data from 2024-25, 34 have shown declining rates, though none have returned to pre-pandemic attendance levels.
The tool was developed and tested in Indiana and Rhode Island, where it correctly predicted chronic absenteeism 88-92% of the time. Testing demonstrated that models developed for specific states remained accurate when applied to other states with different student populations and geographies. The models also maintained similar accuracy whether predicting absences before or after the pandemic.
To protect student and school data, the Absence Forecast processes information locally on users’ computers rather than uploading to external servers. The tool is available both as a browser-based application and as a downloadable offline version. Districts can use the predictions to proactively communicate with families about attendance expectations and implement interventions early, potentially breaking cycles of chronic absenteeism before they fully develop.
Research indicates that schools can effectively combat chronic absenteeism through proactive communication, empathy toward families facing challenges, and early intervention before absences accumulate significantly. The developers hope the tool will enable district leaders to act on attendance data available to them from the start of the school year rather than waiting until later months when patterns become evident.
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