The critical system of ocean currents which loops around the Atlantic Ocean is weakening and could be far closer to collapse than previously thought, according to two new studies — an event which would have catastrophic impacts on the planet’s weather and climate.The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, known as the AMOC, functions like a vast conveyor belt, transporting heat, salt and freshwater through the ocean and influencing climate, weather and sea levels around the planet.A growing body of research suggests it’s weakening as human-driven global warming disrupts its delicate balance of heat and salinity, with one study even predicting it could collapse as soon as next decade. But the AMOC is complex and has only been continuously monitored since 2004. Climate models generally agree it’s on course to weaken this century, but there is a huge amount of uncertainty about the extent of its decline.AdvertisementAdvertisementThe stakes are incredibly high; an AMOC collapse, which last happened roughly 12,000 years ago, would cause chaos. It would push Europe into a winter deep freeze, accelerate sea level rise along the East Coast of the US and drive prolonged droughts across a swath of Africa.The two new studies — one which focuses on the AMOC’s future, the other on its present — provide new and alarming evidence of its decline.The findings are “important and concerning,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, an oceanographer at Potsdam University who has studied the AMOC for decades and was not involved in either report.People load water containers onto an animal in a drought-affected area of Kenya in August 2025. The collapse of the AMOC would bring catastrophic impacts including prolonged droughts across a swath of Africa. – Gerald Anderson/Anadolu/Getty ImagesIn the most recent study, published Thursday in the journal Science Advances, scientists combined climate models with real world data, including ocean temperature and salinity, to map out the AMOC’s future over the next several decades.AdvertisementAdvertisementThey found most climate models underestimate its decline. The AMOC is on course to slow by more than 50% by the end of the century, a “substantial weakening” that’s 60% stronger than that estim …
