The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1, and while early outlooks suggest that a developing El Niño might result in a tamer season than in the past few years, with below-average hurricane activity, all it takes is one big storm hitting a populated area to make it a bad hurricane season.Every year, Americans rely on accurate forecasts when hurricanes might be developing to know when to stock up on supplies, prepare for power outages or evacuate.Those forecasts have improved dramatically in recent decades, but the improvements can’t be taken for granted. Over the past year, federal funding cuts and job losses in the very programs that are helping make Americans safer from extreme weather threaten to stall progress and stretch forecasting resources to the breaking point.Hurricane track forecasts have become more accurate over the past three decades. For example, recent forecasts showing where a storm is expected to be in 96 hours have been, on average, about as accurate as a 24-hour track forecast was in the early 1990s. That gives people more time to evacuate. The lines show how many miles off the National Hurricane Center’s official storm tracks were. National Hurricane CenterI am an atmospheric scientist whose research focuses on hurricanes, including how and why they intensify or weaken. I also work with scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, to analyze observations collected by reconnaissance aircraft and evaluate computer model forecasts of hurricanes.AdvertisementAdvertisementHere’s what forecasters rely on during hurricane season and why investing in science, forecasting technologies and the people who run them matters.Flying through hurricanesTo have the best chance of an accurate hurricane forecast, computer models and meteorologists need to know about the location, intensity and structure of a hurricane, along with the environment that surrounds it. Satellites are crucial for tracking storms from above, but many details can be collected only inside the storm, where satellites can’t see.That’s why NOAA relies on “hurricane hunters” – a group of skilled pilots and scientists who fly through storms all season long to collect storm data, which is quickly transmitted to forecasters and computer models.Flight Director Quinn Kalen at his work station during a flight into Hurricane Lee on Sept. 8, 2023. Lt Cmdr Utama/NOAA CorpsA radar display shows NOAA’s Miss Piggy hurricane hunter aircraft in the center of Tropical Storm Idalia on Aug. 28, 2023. Nick Underwood/NOAAWhen storms are developing, the U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA conduct several hurricane hunter flights per day to provide the most up-to-date storm information. During these missions, the crews often fly directly into the storm, through screaming winds and heavy rain, to release instrument packages called dropsondes.AdvertisementAdvertisementThe dropsonde is a feat of science and engineering, able to accurately measure the te …
