About two-thirds of the U.S. is in some stage of drought in late spring 2026, yet at the same time the country has been seeing more intense downpours. It might seem contradictory, but both are symptoms of rising global temperatures.The reason has to do with the water cycle.Water influences every aspect of our lives through a delicate cycle that transforms liquid water into vapor and back again.As the Earth warms, more of that precipitation is arriving in intense storms that deliver more water than the landscape can handle. When storms drop a few inches of rain over a few days, the water sinks into the soil, nourishing plants and replenishing groundwater. But during heavy downpours, the rain can’t sink in fast enough, and much of the water runs off instead, often fueling flooding.AdvertisementAdvertisementWater also evaporates faster in warmer temperatures. So, despite an increase in total annual precipitation nationally, the landscape is drying out more rapidly as temperatures rise, resulting in more severe and frequent droughts.I’m a hydrologist at UMass Amherst. My colleagues and I are documenting these broad shifts and what they mean for the future of the terrestrial hydrological cycle – the water cycle on land – and the people and ecosystems that depend on it. The effects are occurring across climates around the world.A hydrological cycle out of syncFundamentally, the terrestrial hydrological cycle is controlled by two things: precipitation that adds moisture to the ground and evapotranspiration, meaning water that evaporates either from the land back into the atmosphere or from plants releasing it through their leaves.Over the long term, the total amount of precipitation that falls, minus the total evapotranspiration sending moisture back into the atmosphere, determines how much water moves through the hydrologic system. That affects stream flow, soil moisture and the amount of water sinking into the ground and recharging aquifers.During heavy precipitation in the U.S. Northeast, water is rapidly routed through the shallow subsurface rather than reaching deeper soil and groundwater storage. Julianna C Huba, et al., 2026When this balance shifts or becomes out of sync with its natural state, it affects how water moves through the landscape. And that directly influences where water is available and how much is there.AdvertisementAdvertisementThese shifts in precipitation are occurring alongside longer growing seasons that allow the land to accumulate more heat. As temperatures rise, drier air also pulls more water from the landscape, increasing the risk of drought.The chang …
