Prepare for intense heat, drought and some flooding — it’s officially El Niño season, the National Weather Service announced Thursday.This El Niño event could be on par with some of the strongest documented in the past, according to models from the NWS.“There is a 63% chance that we’re looking at a very strong El Niño during the November to January time period that could rank amongst the largest El Niño events in the historical record,” Ariel Cohen, a meteorologist for the NWS in Los Angeles, said at a news conference held by the Aquarium of the Pacific in Long Beach, California. “We’re already seeing those warm temperatures lining up.”AdvertisementAdvertisementEl Niño is a natural climate pattern that causes warm surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It’s associated with higher average global temperatures, so its effects exacerbate warming from climate change. The pattern is linked to fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic and more in the Pacific.In the U.S., El Niño’s influence is most obvious in the winter, as it shifts the typical flow of the jet stream, the ribbon of air that encircles the Northern Hemisphere and drives weather patterns. The pattern typically pushes the jet stream south.In the Pacific Northwest, that creates dry, warmer-than-usual conditions in winter, which is a concern this year because much of the region is already mired in drought after receiving middling snow. In Southern states, the trend typically brings unusually wet weather in the winter, which could prime the region for flooding.El Niño can also drive powerful marine heat waves and scramble sea life, causing mass die-offs and bringing unusual tropical fish to coastal waters.AdvertisementAdvertisementAndrew Leising, a research oceanographer with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Southwest Fisheries Science Center, said two marine heat waves are already affecting the Pacific — one near the coast of California and another farther offshore.El Niño isn’t causing either of those, but Leising said NOAA’s models suggest that the pattern will drive temperatures in the Pacific up even more drastically this fall, leaving parts of the ocean roasting in back-to-back heat waves.“One of the most important things for the animals in the ecosystem is not necessarily just how hot it is … but just how long they’re exposed to the heat,” Leising said. “We have a situation in Southern California where we’ve already had this heat wave, and we’re just rolling into a heat wave that’s been brought about by El Niño.”He added that in the past, extended marine heat waves have caused decreases in plankton at the base of the food web, as well as harmful algal blooms, which can release neurotoxins that harm sea animals. Whale entanglements become more common, too, because the animals tend to move closer to shore, which increases the likelihood that they intersect with boa …
