(Remove graphic) By Marcelo Teixeira and May Angel LONDON/NEW YORK, June 17 (Reuters) – Global forecasters say a strong El Niño weather pattern is increasingly likely to develop in the second half of the year, boosting temperatures, disrupting rainfall and posing risks to crops the world over. What is El Niño and why are commodities grown in tropical regions, known as soft commodities, especially exposed? EL NIÑO El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years and tends to last between nine and 12 months. The weather pattern typically results in warmer temperatures across the globe, drought in regions including South and Southeast Asia, Australia and Southern Africa, and heavy rainfall in others including the southern parts of South America and the United States. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared the arrival of El Niño last week. Moreover, it said the weather pattern is likely to intensify, with a 63% probability of a very strong or “super El Niño” heading into 2027. El Niño-driven dryness, heat or excess rains are a blow for farmers already grappling this year with the fertiliser and diesel price shocks spurred by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Soft commodities have consistently seen strong price gains during past El Niño episodes. COCOA Every strong El Niño in the past 55 years has reduced cocoa output, according to investment firm WisdomTree. During the last El Niño, which ran from mid-2023 to mid-2024 and was considered …
