A new modeling analysis published in Nature examines potential outcomes if the world adopts dietary recommendations similar to those proposed by the 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission. The research, conducted by teams from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Cornell University, and ten additional modeling organizations, projects substantial changes across global agriculture by 2050.
Under the proposed transformation, global farmland use could decrease by up to 6% relative to current trends, while total livestock production value would fall by approximately 42%, or $630 billion, compared with 2020 levels. Ruminant animal production—including beef cattle, sheep, and goats—would experience the most dramatic contraction, with an estimated 70% decline in value and roughly 400 million fewer animals globally. Conversely, plant-based food production would expand significantly, with the combined value of vegetables, fruits, nuts, and legumes rising by 57%, or $890 billion. Legumes such as beans, peas, and lentils would play a particularly important role as protein and fiber sources.
The modeling indicates substantial climate and health benefits. Agriculture-related net-CO2 emissions from land-use change could be 85% lower by 2050 compared with 2020 levels. The 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission has concluded that transitioning to healthy diets could prevent 15 million premature deaths annually. Earlier research estimates the global food system currently creates $10-$20 trillion in annual hidden costs through health care expenses, environmental damage, and reduced productivity.
The economic effects would vary considerably by region. The United States could experience a 21% decline in total agricultural production value, though crop production would increase by 20% while livestock production would fall by 73%. India would see different outcomes, with overall agricultural production value potentially rising by 46%, including a 65% increase in crop production. Europe could face a 35% decline in total agricultural production value.
Researchers emphasized that the analysis assumes costless shifts in consumer preferences toward healthier diets, which may not account for real-world barriers including affordability, accessibility, cultural preferences, and income constraints. They stress that successful transformation would require bold policy decisions to protect vulnerable food producers and consumers from severe economic disruption, and that additional research is needed to explore alternative pathways based on different policy choices and behavioral patterns.
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