Researchers have created a new forecasting technique that could enable scientists to predict the intensity of the Sun’s activity cycles years before they reach their peak. The method centers on identifying a previously unknown “switch-off” point in the solar cycle when the Sun’s most severe space weather phenomena terminate abruptly. By measuring sunspot numbers at this specific stage, scientists can estimate the strength of the following solar cycle approximately six to seven years before it reaches maximum activity.
Under this new approach, projections for Solar Cycle 26 suggest it may be moderate in strength, with sunspot counts ranging from 100 to 120. This would make it comparable to or possibly weaker than the current Solar Cycle 25. More precise forecasts are expected to become available in roughly two years, once Solar Cycle 25 reaches the newly identified switch-off point, allowing calculations to rely on direct observations rather than estimates.
The technique builds upon earlier research involving a standardized “sunclock” system that normalizes the Sun’s irregular cycles. Scientists discovered that extreme space weather does not gradually diminish as a cycle winds down but instead ceases at a clearly defined moment. The number of sunspots present at this juncture correlates strongly with the highest sunspot count the following cycle will achieve.
Professor Sandra Chapman of the University of Warwick explained that the Sun’s magnetic field reverses polarity roughly every 11 years in a process involving visible sunspots, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections. The new method provides significantly longer advance notice compared to conventional forecasting approaches, which typically require waiting until the Sun reaches its quietest phase. The switch-off occurs when active sunspot regions move below approximately 15 degrees solar latitude, where differential rotation weakens and a co-rotating region forms around the solar equator, reducing the mechanism that drives extreme space weather.
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