A piece of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket upper stage is anticipated to collide with the lunar surface on Wednesday, according to analysis conducted by Bill Gray, a software developer who tracks objects in space. The fragment, which is approximately the size of a five-story building, is predicted to strike at 2:35 a.m. ET at a velocity exceeding 5,000 miles per hour.
The rocket piece originated from a Falcon 9 launch in January 2025 that carried two lunar landers and scientific instruments toward the moon. Scientists project that the impact will occur on a sunlit portion of the lunar surface visible from Earth, specifically in the northwestern region near the Einstein Crater. According to Gray’s estimates, the collision could produce a crater measuring at least 17 meters in diameter.
The impact was not part of SpaceX’s intended mission objectives. NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will observe the target area before and after the collision to document any changes to the lunar terrain. Project scientist Brent Garry indicated that the orbiter will conduct additional imaging approximately one week following the impact to gather detailed information about the impact site.
While the event presents a rare opportunity to study lunar impacts, visibility may be limited. Some researchers suggest that visible effects could include a dust plume or ejected rocks that might be detectable by sensitive telescopes, though observation will require appropriate equipment. Ben Fernando, a postdoctoral researcher at Los Alamos National Laboratory, encouraged interested observers with suitable instruments to attempt viewing the event, though he cautioned that standard binoculars would likely prove insufficient for observation.
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