Researchers have released the first scientific analysis of a devastating glacier collapse that occurred on 26 August, which triggered massive flooding across Nepal and Tibet. The disaster killed more than 1,300 people, with over 5,000 remaining missing. A large section of glacier and rock measuring approximately 200,000 square metres detached from Langtang Lirung mountain, plummeting roughly 1,400 metres into the valley below and generating such force that it registered as an earthquake. The resulting flood, moving at speeds exceeding 110 mph, swept away entire settlements, homes, infrastructure and families downstream without warning.
The study, conducted by Imperial College London’s World Weather Attribution team in collaboration with international climate specialists, identified unusually warm conditions in the region preceding the collapse. Local temperatures reached approximately 5 degrees Celsius above the 30-year average in the days before the disaster. The research found that climate change has caused roughly 2 degrees Celsius of warming in the collapse region since pre-industrial times, with July and August 2026 representing the warmest months on record locally. Additionally, the freezing threshold in the Himalayas has risen by approximately 100 metres per decade since the 1980s, with sustained warming weakening mountain slopes stabilized by permafrost.
Rather than attributing the collapse directly to a single weather event, researchers characterized the disaster as resulting from compound factors exacerbated by decades of atmospheric heating from greenhouse gas emissions. The warming had already driven substantial glacier recession, removing stabilizing ice from around the collapse site and contributing meltwater. A 7.8 magnitude earthquake in 2015 also contributed to slope instability, though its specific role in the recent collapse could not be definitively confirmed. Researchers noted that rock avalanches of this magnitude occur approximately once every 1,000 to 10,000 years.
Nepal has formally requested assistance from the UN loss and damage fund, requiring documented evidence linking the disaster to climate change. Officials have called on major emitting nations to accept responsibility for the catastrophe. Climate specialists emphasized that only significant reductions in global emissions can address the mounting losses and damages experienced by vulnerable communities facing climate-driven disasters.
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