Researchers at Florida State University examined how changes to National Hurricane Center forecast graphics affect public understanding of hurricane threats. The study, conducted by faculty from the School of Communication and Department of Geography, investigated whether an experimental graphic that expands the traditional hurricane forecast cone to include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas improves public comprehension compared to the conventional cone format.
The expanded graphic was developed by the NHC in 2024 to address the traditional emphasis on coastal regions, despite dangerous storm conditions regularly extending far inland. The research team surveyed residents of Florida and Georgia, showing participants either the conventional hurricane cone graphic or the newer experimental version. Results revealed that participants who viewed the revised map were more successful at identifying locations under hurricane or tropical storm watches. However, this improved recognition of watch areas did not translate into greater concern about potential danger or stronger intentions to take safety precautions. Additionally, participants showed no improvement in identifying areas covered by storm warnings. The findings were published in the American Meteorological Society journal Weather, Climate, and Society.
The study also revealed persistent misunderstandings about the hurricane cone graphic itself. Many people incorrectly interpret the cone’s width as an indication of a storm’s physical size rather than understanding that it represents uncertainty in the projected track. Assistant Professor Elizabeth Ray, the study’s lead author, noted that despite the National Hurricane Center’s thoughtful improvements to its communication materials, the question remained whether these changes actually help people understand the risk they face.
The research emphasizes that adding information to a forecast does not automatically increase public awareness of personal risk or motivate appropriate response. While the researchers stressed that their findings do not question the accuracy of the National Hurricane Center’s weather predictions, they underscore the difficulty of presenting complex meteorological information in a way that people without specialized knowledge can readily interpret and use for safety decisions. Co-author Patrick Merle noted that if people find information credible but don’t understand it sufficiently to take protective action, the communication effort has fallen short.
The researchers recommend using hurricane forecast graphics alongside local weather predictions and detailed impact information to provide a more complete understanding of hurricane risks. They emphasize that individuals should not rely on the cone alone but instead pair it with clear, local information about expected impacts and recommended protective actions. The study was funded through a Florida State University SEED grant and was informed by discussions with the National Hurricane Center.
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