Researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research have documented a statistically significant acceleration in global warming since around 2015. The analysis, published in Geophysical Research Letters, shows Earth has warmed at approximately 0.35°C per decade over the past 10 years—nearly double the rate of roughly 0.2°C per decade measured between 1970 and 2015.
Identifying changes in the underlying pace of warming proved more complex than simple year-to-year temperature comparisons because natural climate patterns can temporarily mask longer-term trends. Natural phenomena such as El Niño events, volcanic eruptions, and solar activity fluctuations create noise in temperature records that obscures the fundamental warming signal. To overcome this challenge, researchers mathematically adjusted observational data to account for these known natural influences, allowing them to isolate the underlying warming trend from temporary fluctuations.
The team examined five major global temperature datasets—NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, and ERA5—using multiple statistical methods. The findings remained consistent across all datasets and analytical approaches, yielding over 98 percent statistical certainty that global warming has accelerated. Even after accounting for exceptional temperatures in 2023 and 2024, which were influenced by natural factors including El Niño and solar maximum activity, both years still ranked as the warmest on instrumental record. Indicators of accelerating warming emerged as early as 2013 or 2014 across all datasets, indicating the finding was not driven solely by recent extreme temperatures.
While the study provides robust statistical evidence for acceleration, the researchers noted it was not designed to determine the precise physical mechanisms driving the change. However, current climate models produce results consistent with the observed acceleration, suggesting they adequately represent recent warming dynamics. The findings carry significant implications for international climate goals, with researchers warning that if current warming rates persist, Earth could exceed the Paris Agreement target of 1.5°C above preindustrial levels on a sustained basis sooner than previously projected.
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