A comprehensive research study has produced substantially revised estimates of Australia’s Indigenous population prior to European colonization, challenging decades of historical assumptions. Using advanced computer modeling combined with ethnographic observations, archaeological findings, and genetic reconstructions, scientists calculated a median pre-colonial Indigenous population of approximately 2.22 million people. This figure represents a significant increase from earlier estimates, which had generally ranged between 250,000 and 1 million people.
The earlier population figures were primarily influenced by calculations made during the 1930s by anthropologist Alfred Radcliffe-Brown, whose estimate of around 250,000 people became widely accepted in historical discourse. However, subsequent research has demonstrated that disease, frontier violence, and systemic oppression had far more severe impacts than previously acknowledged, suggesting that many early counts were substantial underestimates even before being recorded.
The revised population baseline has allowed researchers to quantify the demographic impact of colonization with unprecedented precision. Between 1788 and 1861, the study estimates that approximately 2.06 million excess deaths occurred, representing an average of roughly 28,200 deaths annually over the 73-year period. By 1861, the Indigenous population had declined to an estimated 7% of its pre-colonial size, constituting a 93% reduction in just over seven decades.
The findings carry significant implications for understanding Australian history and its ongoing effects. Researchers note that the scale of this demographic collapse informs contemporary discussions about intergenerational trauma, persistent disadvantage, and policy development for Indigenous communities. The study indicates that at current population growth rates, Indigenous population numbers may not return to estimated pre-colonial levels until around 2047. Published in Nature Human Behaviour, the research was conducted through the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, involving collaboration with Indigenous partners and researchers from multiple Australian institutions.
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